A Little Perspective On Healthcare
We are constantly hearing about the healthcare “crisis” in America with huge numbers being thrown around without context. When you hear about 46 million people without health insurance it most definitely sounds like a crisis but let’s add a little perspective.
According to Google Public Data the US population in July 2007 was 301,290,332 and according to the US Census the total number of people without health insurance in 2007 was 45,657,000 which is just over 15% of the total population.
Stop right here and ask yourself the question is it a crises and do we really need to fundamentally change the best healthcare in the world for 15% of the population?
I already hear some of you saying “but The World Health Organization says we rank #37 in the world in healthcare.” That study was last done almost 10 years ago and only looks at certain aspects of healthcare. It does not rank quality of care only certain outcomes of the system. I’m not saying we have the best delivery system or the cheapest. What I am saying is nobody from the United States takes a plane ride to France when they have stage 3 malignant melanoma. People do however come to the United States from all over the world to have treatment for all kinds of health issues. Most notably those in nationalized healthcare systems where care is rationed. Also an ABC News/USA Today/Kaiser Family Foundation health care poll released in October 2006 found that 89% of Americans are satisfied with their own personal health insurance. To be fair only 44% in the same poll said they were satisfied with the overall system. So again I’m not saying we have the best system I’m saying we have the best quality of care.
Let’s go back to the numbers again we’ll come back to the system another day.
The 46 million number is accurate but misleading at best. Included in that number are illegal aliens. According to the 2007 US Census the number of illegal aliens in the US was about 13 million. From the little research I did I found estimates anywhere from 6 to 20 million. On September 9 2009 President Obama used the 30 million uninsured number presumably leaving out the number of illegal aliens. By his estimation there are about 16 million illegal aliens in the US. Lets use the Presidents numbers which again are 16 million illegal and 30 million uninsured.
The next number we have to look at is the number of people who can get it but choose not to. Carl Bialik of the Wall Street Journal says:
some people are eligible for health insurance but don’t know it and many can afford it but don’t want it. About 43% of uninsured nonelderly adults have incomes greater than 2.5 times the poverty level, according to a report released Tuesday by the business-backed Employment Policies Institute.
If your income is less than $22, 025 annually for a family of four you are in poverty by US standards which means those above have incomes exceeding $55,000 annually. After taking out the 43% of 30 million we are left with about 17 million without access.
Mr. Bialik also quotes Michael Davern to point out a flaw in the census numbers:
Meanwhile, Census’s state-by-state counts of the uninsured tend to be much higher than state surveys, which have their own flaws. For instance, some don’t reach people without landline phones.
The national agency assumes that people who don’t answer its health-care questions are much more likely to be uninsured. But that overstates the number of those without coverage, according to Michael Davern, an assistant professor at the University of Minnesota’s public health school, who has been studying the discrepancy under a contract with the Census Bureau. To adjust for that overestimate, he recommends that Census adjust its national count of uninsured people downward by 2.5 million. The agency is still considering whether to implement that change.
So now were left with potentially 14.5 million without access.
And finally there are people in transition. Those between jobs who for a month or a few weeks don’t have insurance. They’re not uninsurable and can afford it they just don’t happen to have it on the day they filled out the form or answered the phone call. I have no idea what that number is but in July of 2007 the US unemployment rate was 4.7% or about 14 million people. I’m not going to hazard a guess as to how many didn’t take COBRA.
The bottom line is the actual number is somewhere between 12 and 30 million people. I’ll split the difference with you and say were talking about 16 million people without access to health insurance. The system does need help that is not my point. Even if there are only a million people not receiving adequate healthcare this is a real problem we must address however;
is it a “crisis” when only 5% of the total population needs help and the number could actually be less than 3%?
Tags: Healthcare, Politics
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My Songs
Another number to consider, how about all those who are part of a medical sharing plan (not insurance)? Some of these groups have paid out millions of dollars of medical expenses. The plans that I am aware of are faith-based, cheaper that traditional insurance, and offer prayer and other emotional support networks not offer by insurance. And here is the kicker – since they are not considered insurance, the money spent on these programs are taxed. Imagine if government would just back out and let these groups flourish without the added burden of being taxed by the government.